Beware the Statistical Analysis of March

 
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11
 
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Again, for those late to the show…
the magic number is how many points the Pens need to clinch a playoff spot.
 
They need to be above the ninth seed.
Below are the point totals if every team wins out.
 
We aren't messing with tiebreakers.
So we're just playing it safe with 1 point extra.
 
 
wsh127
pit 113
buf 112
njd 113
ott 105
phi 104
bos 102
mtl 100
nyr 97
fla 96
tbl 96
atl 95
car 92
nyi 91
tor 84
 
How scary is it that Toronto and the Isles are about 4 or 5 wins away from being talked about?
A stupid penalty here and a soft goal there all add up over the season.
 
And this got us thinking.
 
Here are some stats.
Two things to look at before analyzing this shit:
 
– One-goal-game winning percentages
– OT/Shootout records
 
We don't care about the Western Conference until late May.
 
First up is the one-goal-game winning percentages:
(Red dots are current playoff teams)

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Wow. Playoff team city.
We're never underestimating the "record in one-goal games" stat ever again.
We say that without caring whether or not this year is an anomaly in NHL history.
 
 
And then here are the OT/Shootout records:

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All 8 playoff teams are at least one game under .500 or better.
Can't be a coincidence.
 
 
Some interesting shit:
 
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– The only non-playoff team above .500 in OT/SO. (12W9L)
– The highest one-goal-game winning percentage overall of non-playoff teams.
– 36 games have been one-goal affairs. Dogfights.
– They've lost 11 one-goal games in regulation. They've lost 9 in OT/Shootout.

– Turn around a couple wins in regulation and a couple OTs, the Isles would be in business.
(This relates to all of the fringe playoff teams obviously.)
 
Their 4-11 record in one-goal regulation games is a joke.*
But they're inching their way.

Glad we did this stat breakdown.
Mark it down: Isles are in the playoffs next year.

 
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– Have played 38 one-goal games.
*Record in one-goal regulation games: 4-11.
 
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– 39 one-goal games. Most in the Eastern conference.
 
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– Have played 38 one-goal games.
– They sneak in with a 15-6 OT/SO record.
*Their possible downfall? A vomitous 4-13 record in one-goal regulation games.

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– Record at home in OT/SO: ( 0-6 )
What a joke.
 
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– Record on the road in OT/SO: ( 7-2 )
Not a joke.
 
http://cdn1.bloguin.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2010/04/wsh.png

 
 
 
 
 
– 9-9 in OT/SO. 7-8 in one-goal regulation games.

Very interesting. Not the record you'd expect.
 
And then add in this stat, which isn't available in those tables above.
– Caps are 11-0 in two-goal games. (only undefeated team in the league, let alone the East.)
And they are 19-6 in three-goal-or-more games, tops in the East. ( Buffalo is next at 11-7.)
 
30 of the Caps 46 wins have been comfortable wins (by 2 goals or 3-or-more goals).
That's 65%, essentially two-thirds.
 
Statistically speaking, are the Caps the horse to take when the action gets tighter in the playoffs?
Just saying.
 
And finally…
 
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The Pens have been shutout 5 times this year.
Look at the teams around them.
No clue what it means.
 
But we know what that red zero means.
Only team in the NHL to have not recorded a shutout this year.
 
Guess what.
It's coming on Wednesday.
 
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